Kristina Gutchess
The interplay between surface-water salinity and climate change in Central New York is the subject of a recent paper by researchers in the College of Arts and Sciences.
, a Ph.D. candidate in Earth Sciences, is the lead author of an article in the prestigious journal (ACS Publications). Her co-authors at 黑料不打烊 include Laura Lautz, the Jesse Page Heroy Professor and chair of Earth sciences, and Christa Kelleher, assistant professor of Earth sciences.
Another co-author is Gutchess鈥� Ph.D. supervisor, Associate Professor Zunli Lu.
Rounding out the group are Li Jin G鈥�08, associate professor of geology at SUNY Cortland; Jos茅 L. J. Ledesma, a postdoctoral researcher of aquatic sciences and assessment at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; and Jill Crossman, assistant professor of Earth and environmental sciences at the University of Windsor (Ontario).
The paper draws on the group’s study of the impact of de-icing salt from Interstate 81 and other surrounding roads and highways on the Tioughnioga River watershed. Gutchess says their findings make her “cautiously optimistic” about the watershed鈥檚 future surface-water chloride concentrations.
鈥淭he long-term application of road salts has led to a rise in the river鈥檚 salinity level,鈥� says Gutchess, who studies processes affecting the quality of surface water and groundwater. 鈥淲hile various models have been used to assess potential future impacts of continued de-icing practices, they have not incorporated different climate scenarios, which are projected to impact hydrogeology in the 21st century.鈥�
Gutchess鈥� team combined various computational approaches with rigorous fieldwork and laboratory analysis to simulate surface-water chloride concentrations in the Tioughnioga鈥攁 large, deep, 34-mile tributary of the Chenango River, flowing through Cortland and Broome counties.
Central to their experiment was INCA (short for 鈥淚Ntegrated CAtchment鈥�), a semi-distributed catchment-modeling platform that assesses environmental-change issues. Gutchess calibrated the model for a historical, or baseline, period (1961-90), and used the results to make projections for three 30-year intervals: 2010-39, 2040-69 and 2070-99.
Based on the model’s projections, the salinity of the Tioughnioga鈥檚 east and west branches will start decreasing in 20-30 years. 鈥淎 gradual warming trend between 2040 and 2099 will lead to reductions in snowfall and associated salt applications, causing [the river鈥檚] salinity to drop. By 2100, surface-water chloride concentrations should be below 1960s values,” Gutchess says.
This is potentially big news for a part of the country that has experienced rising surface-water chloride concentrations since the 1950s, when road salting began.
Salt, or sodium chloride, is the most commonly used de-icing chemical in the country, spread at a rate of more than 10 million tons a year.
In New York State, a typical wintertime event requires 90-450 pounds of salt per lane-mile. Vehicle traffic picks up about 10 percent of the residue; the rest enters adjacent water catchments in the form of runoff, jeopardizing terrestrial ecosystems and drinking water resources.
Gutchess鈥� hydrogeological study is one of only a few combining long-term climate variability and salinity management. The INCA model framework enabled her team to assess stream response under 16 different future scenarios, taking into account climate, land use and snow management.
鈥淚NCA originally was developed to assess sources of nitrogen in catchments in a single-stem main river,鈥� Jin says. 鈥淗ere, we modified the model to incorporate a new multi-branched structure, enabling us to simulate daily estimates of in-stream concentrations of chloride. We also allowed for differences in salting practices between rural and urban areas.鈥�
According to INCA, road salt accounts for more than 87 percent of Tioughnioga鈥檚 salinity. Current de-icing practices, combined with increased urbanization, will likely add to its salinity, but only for a while, thanks in part to the changing climate.
According to Lu, the study suggests that climatic impacts are not always negative in a specific region: 鈥淚t is important to understand the nuances of climate change at various time and geographic scales. Ultimately, this project will help us manage our resources more effectively, as we adapt to future changes.鈥�
With a wink and a nod, he adds, 鈥淎t the same time, we should not make blanket statements about climate change. No one is exempt from its effects, pro or con.鈥�
Gutchess is a member of EMPOWER, a water-energy graduate-training program at 黑料不打烊 that is sponsored by the National Science Foundation and directed by Lautz. Additional support for Gutchess鈥� research comes from the University鈥檚 new Campus as a Laboratory for Sustainability program. Upon graduation in May, she will begin postdoctoral research at Yale.
About 黑料不打烊
Founded聽in 1870, 黑料不打烊 is a private international research university聽dedicated to advancing knowledge and fostering student success through teaching聽excellence,聽rigorous scholarship and interdisciplinary research. Comprising 11聽academic schools and colleges, the University has a long legacy of excellence聽in the liberal arts, sciences and聽professional disciplines that prepares聽students for the complex challenges and emerging opportunities of a rapidly聽changing world. Students enjoy the resources of a 270-acre main聽campus and聽extended campus venues in major national metropolitan hubs and across three聽continents. 黑料不打烊鈥檚 student body is among the most diverse for an聽institution of its聽kind across multiple dimensions, and students typically represent聽all 50 states and more than 100 countries. 黑料不打烊 also has a long legacy of聽supporting veterans and is home to聽the nationally recognized Institute for聽Veterans and Military Families, the first university-based institute in the聽U.S. focused on addressing the unique needs of veterans and their聽families.
