Reporters looking for an expert to discuss how these tariffs will impact global trade and the economies of India and the US, please see the expertise of ���ϲ����� Professor of Economics He is an expert on Indian economics and international trade.

In reaction to the news, Professor Mitra responded:

• “These US tariffs apply to India’s goods exports. It is much more difficult, if not impossible, to put tariffs on its service exports. The US share in India’s ��manufacturing exports is close to 20%, while the US share in India’s service exports is over 60%. If we look at India’s total exports to all countries, 40% is service exports. While India’s goods exports to the US are about $86 billion, its service exports to the US are about $186 billion. Therefore, while a 50% tariffs on Indian goods exports to the US ��will cause significant damage to the Indian economy, it will be ��somewhat limited by the fact that its service exports to the US are more than double that of its goods exports,” said Mitra.
• “Also, India is a large and diversified economy and has a very large domestic market, which producers there will certainly tap into. Recently, India has been signing free trade agreements with various countries. President Trump’s 50% tariff will push them into negotiating trade agreements with many more countries. Given that President Trump has imposed tariffs on 90 countries so far, many of those countries also will be looking for alternative markets for their own products. This will benefit India. ��These trade agreements with other countries will further contain the impact of the Trump tariff on India. These agreements might take a little bit of time, so the immediate negative impact of the Trump tariff might be larger than what we see in the longer run,” said Mitra.

• “There are some estimates out there that the US tariffs will shave off 1 percentage point from India’s ��currently projected growth rate of 6.5% for FY 2025-26, but others say that the growth reduction could be a bit larger,” said Mitra.

• “All of this remains to be seen. There was a meeting scheduled some time ago between US and Indian trade negotiators in New Delhi for the end of this month, so, at the very least, President Trump should not have expected any concessions from India before the end of this month. But even by the end of this month, the US is unlikely to get from India what it wants. Totally opening up its agricultural and dairy markets to American agricultural and dairy producers is what President Trump wants India to do. This would be political suicide for Prime Minister Modi (this will have tremendous political costs). Also, President Trump doesn’t want India to buy Russian oil. While it is true that India should not be buying that oil in light of the current Ukraine-Russia conflict (President Trump does not apply the rules on this uniformly on all countries), the Modi government has consistently argued that cheap oil benefits India a great deal. For a large and populous country like India with a population of over 1.4 billion, there is a big demand for oil and purchase of Russian oil leads to big savings for it. In addition, India has been processing Russian oil and selling that processed oil to other countries, which has been generating considerable revenues and profits,” said Mitra.

• “Thus, given the large political and economic costs of meeting President Trump’s demands, it is unlikely that India will provide him with any concessions. It is quite possible that President Trump’ negotiating team will come back empty handed from New Delhi in late August,” said Mitra.

• “It is also important to note that, given America’s problems with China, the US has wanted India to be a counter to China in that region. So India is of huge geopolitical importance to the US. ��Thus, the geopolitics itself provides India with considerable negotiating power. If President Trump doesn’t understand that, it is not totally impossible that India will get pushed towards China’s side, in which case it is possible that it joins the currently China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) (a free trade agreement) as an equal member. In the situation and climate President Trump has created, it won’t be surprising if both India and China find this a mutually beneficial transaction.,” said Mitra.

To arrange an interview with Professor Mitra, please contact Ellen James Mbuqe, executive director of media relations at ejmbuqe@syr.edu.

Patrick Penfield

is a professor of practice in supply chain management and director of executive education at the ���ϲ����� Whitman School. He provides insight about how everything from clothing to classroom items like pens and pencils may be impacted this year. His advice? Parents should begin shopping as soon as possible to get lower prices and better variety.

Penfield says:

“Increased prices and lack of product variety due to tariffs will impact back-to-school shoppers this fall. Many retailers have been trying to manage tariff price impacts by ordering less inventory from high tariff countries and trying to source domestically. Products such as apparel, sneakers, backpacks, pens and pencils will cost more and there will be less options for these items.

“Prices on back-to-school items could be 15-25% higher by Sept. 1.”

To request interviews or get more information, please contact:

Daryl Lovell
Associate Director of Media Relations
Division of Communications

M��315.380.0206
dalovell@syr.edu |
news.syr.edu |

Tariffs and the Auto Industry

is Dean of the College of Law at ���ϲ����� and began his career in the Office of the General Counsel at Ford Motor Company in the International Trade and Transactions practice group. His practice focused on ��U.S. law for foreign affiliates and subsidiaries, among other topics. Later he served as Ford’s Director for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Government Affairs.

• “The global automotive industry works best in free markets, free of market distortions such as tariff and non-tariff barriers. Free markets have led to greater consumer choice and lower prices. The industry requires long lead times to adjust to changes in tariff policy. An immediate 25% tariff on automotive parts and finished vehicles from Canada and Mexico will introduce a great deal of uncertainty into the supply chain, and ultimately will lead to higher vehicle prices until the market can adjust,” said Lau.

History of Tariffs

, professor of history in the Maxwell School at ���ϲ�����, is the author of��. The book gives a history lesson of the tariffs used by American governments from the 18^th century until early 20^th century. Early in American history, Congress instituted high tariffs on most imports due to distrust of foreign goods.��But due to demand for things like silk, tobacco, and sugar, a brisk illicit traffic developed to maneuver around those laws. Cohen said:��

• “The US has long used tariffs to collect revenue, aid manufacturing, and exert power.�� But I can’t think of a trade war initiated so randomly in a time of peace and prosperity” said Cohen.
• “Early 20^th Americans replaced tariffs with income taxes because the former generated insufficient revenue to pay for a modern military,” said Cohen. “Reformers also viewed the tariff as a source of corruption, as businesses bribed Congressmen to support taxes giving them monopolies.��Tariffs led to widespread smuggling, which even an extensive network of customhouses could not staunch. Writing a tariff bill became so complicated that Congress gave the president wide discretion to negotiate rates.�� Now, we’re seeing the consequences, as one man can start a trade war.”

��Economic Impact and Tariffs

, assistant professor at ���ϲ�����’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, is an expert in international trade, tariffs, and supply chains. He’s been interviewed by several news outlets about tariffs including a recent interview with Newsweek, “.”

From the article:

• “Ryan Monarch, a professor of economics at ���ϲ�����, told��Newsweek��prices will be driven up not only by the tariffs themselves, but also the increased costs with complying with customs rules.
• There will be added costs both from sellers, who will need to prepare paperwork and calculate the value of each package as well as U.S. customs workers who will be tasked with enforcing the new policy, he said.
• ‘Part of the reason the exemption exists in the first place is that it didn’t seem worth it to try to do all of the work to examine all of these packages and imported things that are of such low value,’ he said.
• In total, a 25 to 30 percent price increase would not be ‘outlandlish,’ Monarch said. It’s difficult to predict the full impact, but companies are unlikely to eat the costs of these fees, he added.
• ‘We should expect that those prices are going to go directly onto American buyers. Research has shown that Chinese suppliers pass on those prices completely.’”

Tariffs and the Supply Chain

is a Professor of Practice – Supply Chain Management and Director of Executive Education at the Whitman School of Management. He is a scholar when it comes to providing insight about how economic policies will impact the national and global supply chains. He’s been interviewed by many outlets on tariffs specifically, including Buffalo’s and the .

Here’s what he’s highlighted:

• The tariff on Chinese goods could impact almost every U.S. industry according to supply chain expert Patrick Penfield.
• “We import a lot of base ingredients from China that’s used in various industries. So you’re talking pharmaceutical, the toy industry, electronics. So almost every industry in the United States would be impacted.”

US-Mexico Relations

, associate professor of history at the Maxwell School at ���ϲ�����, is an expert on Mexico and United States relations. She can discuss trade and tariffs between the US and Mexico, immigration, security and fentanyl.

McCormick, who is the Jay and Debe Moskowitz Endowed Chair in Mexico-U.S. Relations at ���ϲ�����, was interviewed by Insight Crime for the article “.”

• “Tariffs will hurt the Mexican economy, which will further weaken the Mexican system and the rule of law, and that’s going to make Mexico much more vulnerable to further incursions from organized crime,” McCormick told InSight Crime.
• “I don’t see any real concerted, long-term improvements that would come out of this to tackle issues of security and organized crime in Mexico,” McCormick told InSight Crime.